Tonight, two of the heavyweights in the National League collide as league leaders Cheltenham Town welcome 3rd place Grimsby to Whaddon Road. Both head into this game in identical form picking up a decent 17 points from their last 10 games. With 3 games in hand on the hosts, Grimsby aren't out of the title race by any means, but they will certainly need a win tonight to give them any chance of turning around their fourteen point deficit. Cheltenham were the victors at Blundell Park when these sides met earlier this season courtesy of a Aaron Downes header.
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Cheltenham Town are potentially 5 games away from being
only the 6th side to get promoted back to the Football League
at the first attempt. |
League leaders Cheltenham hit a rough patch of form in March as they only managed 7 points from their six games. They are finding out first hand how competitive this league is and although they've been pretty consistent throughout this season, they put in quite a tired, lacklustre performance away at Wrexham on Monday. That is something they can't afford to do against a well organised Grimsby side who know how to handle the pressure at the end of the season having made the playoffs for the past three years. If they're going to get the 3 points tonight, they have to put better service into strikers Daniel Wright and Dan Holman, something they failed to do on Monday. With 44 goals scored between the pair, they've proven that if given the opportunity, they're likely to hit the back of the net. The hosts benefit from set-pieces due to predominately being a physical side so I wouldn't be surprised to see the winning goal come from a corner as it did in the reverse fixture. They struggled to deal with the pace of Wrexham's players on Monday so if they're going to win this game, their will be greater importance on the midfielders dropping back and helping out their defenders by doubling up on the wingers and clinical finisher Padraig Amond.
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27 year old Irishman Padraig Amond is the league's top scorer
with 26 league goals so far this season, 15 more than fellow
striker Omar Bogle. |
Grimsby are on course to finish in the top four for the 4th consecutive season but everyone associated with the club will be hoping that if they go to the playoffs again, their curse will be broken having lost in two semi-finals and last years final on penalties. The visitors tend to always have good strikers, similar to Forest Green, but it's sloppy defensive play and a poor spell of form that ends up letting them down. Alongside some questionable defending at times, their has not been enough goal contribution by midfielders and Omar Bogle as it's been Amond who's been stealing the headlines with an impressive 26 goals in the league. The 27 year old seems to have hit his peak and Morecambe are probably questioning their decision to release the journeyman striker in the summer. Amond doesn't just bring goals to the table but also adds experience as he's one three trophies during his time in the Irish Premier League and also was also part of the 2010-11 Pacos de Ferreira side who were runners-up to Benfica in the Portuguese League Cup. After the shock defeat to Macclesfield on Monday, there is no more room for error and they need to pick up all of these 24 points if they're to have a chance at pipping Cheltenham and Forest Green Rovers to the title. To win tonight, Grimsby have to keep the ball on the ground and play at a high tempo in order to tire Cheltenham's physical side out and then when in the final third, they have to be decisive and quick on their feet because the hosts will definitely defend in numbers so I'd expect a counter-attacking mentality from the visitors.
The result of this game will all depends on who wants it more and who is willing to throw everything at the game in order to win. A point for Cheltenham would be a decent result due to their superior goal difference however Grimsby are going to fight from the first kick of the ball until the last like Wrexham. I think the pace of Bogle and the presence of Amond will be too much for Cheltenham to contain for 90 minutes and for that reason, I'm predicting Grimsby to snatch the 3 points late on and win 2-1.
