Saturday 28 January 2017

FA Vase Fifth Round Preview - Part Two

Newport Pagnell Town vs Sunderland RCA














This tie sees two sides, stuck in mid-table in their respective leagues meet. The hosts are currently in 10th place in the United Counties League Premier Division, on 41 points, a massive 29 points behind the league leaders, despite bolstering an impressive +27 goal difference. The visitors play in arguably the most competitive and therefore the hardest league to win in Step 5, the Northern League Division One. Therefore, it's no surprise to see that they're having difficulties in it this season, as they find themselves in 12th place, and a massive 36 points off the leaders, North Shields. Due to their lack of competitiveness in their respective leagues, this competition will no doubt be what they're focusing on, and, it seems to have worked for them so far, as both of these sides are at this stage for the first time in their history. The trend of the teams being left in this competition being prolific in front of goal sees no change with this tie, as Newport Pagnell Town have managed a mighty 60 goals in their 26 league outings, in comparison with Sunderland RCA who have found the net 54 times in their 28 league matches. However, the main difference between these sides is their defensive record. The hosts bolster the better, conceding 33 in 26, whereas, their visitors have conceded 55 in just two extra games. Both of these sides faced a tough match in the last game and showed the resilience needed to make it far in this competition, as the hosts held on to beat Peterborough Sports 3-2, whereas, the visitors managed to hold on against AFC Mansfield to see out a 1-0 win. In my opinion, it'll be Newport Pagnell Town, who end up progressing to the quarter finals, they're a better side than their league position suggests and I can see them proving that in this fixture, by exposing Sunderland RCA's defensive frailties, making the away fans' seven and a half hours all-round trip even longer.

Score Prediction - Newport Pagnell Town 4:2 Sunderland RAC

Ely City vs Sporting Khalsa














This tie sees a side fighting to survive, taking on a side looking to make a late chase for the title. The hosts are relegation candidates this year in the Eastern Counties League Premier Division, as they currently occupy 17th place, just 5 points clear of the relegation zone. Whereas, their visitors, despite sitting in 5th place and 23 points behind the leaders in the Midland Football League Premier Division, find themselves having seven games in hand, a similar position to what they found themselves in last year. Winning all these would see them right back in the challenge for the title. Both these sides, by making it to this stage, are on the best run in their history, having only progressed as far as the Fourth Round in 2012/13 and the Second Qualifying Round in 2007/08 respectively. The fact that Sporting Khalsa having progressed past the First Round before makes this cup run even more incredible, as they are now, only three rounds away from Wembley. The hosts are also the first team in this preview not to bolster an incredible goal scoring record this season as they've only managed 33 goals in 24 league games, in comparison to Khalsa's 47 goals in 23 league games. Defensively, Ely City also look vulnerable, as they've conceded 43 in 24, compared to the visitors' record of 28 conceded in 23, a staggering difference. However, in the FA Vase so far, they've looked like a decent side, which they showed in the last round, as they easily dispatched of Shepshed Dynamo, winning 3-0. Sporting Khalsa will be aiming to get revenge for their beaten league compatriots, but will need to put up a better showing than their narrow 1-0 win over Tring Athletic in the last round. One thing I learned about Khalsa last year is that they're very inconsistent, they seem to go through patches where they look like one of best teams in the MFL and then they'll just drop the levels and look like an average side, which they did when they came to Edgar Street. The attendance in the last round at Ely City was 386, and I can see that being beaten fairly comfortably, as I expect their to be a crowd of around 600, with around 200 making the 2 hour trip from Khalsa. The visitors will surely go into this tie with the belief that they are the better side, and, as long that confidence doesn't turn into complacency, the should be able to see this tie out rather comfortably.

Score Prediction - Ely City 0:2 Sporting Khalsa

Team Solent vs South Shields











This tie sees the favourites to win the FA Vase make the longest trip of the round, to play a side whose focus will all be on this competition. The hosts are currently in 5th Place in the Wessex League Premier Division, and, sit 18 points behind the league leaders, a gap which could be halved if they win their games in hand. The visitors also represent the hardest division in Step 5, the Northern Premier League Division One, but unlike Sunderland, they are very competitive within it. They currently occupy 2nd place, 8 points behind rivals North Shields, and, also have two games in hand, so a late title push could be possible. Team Solent are at this stage for the first time in their history, whereas, South Shields will be aiming to equal their best run, by reaching the next round. This fixture sees us go back to the norm, with two prolific attacking sides facing each other. Team Solent, scoring an impressive 62 goals in 25 league games, however South Shields have scored an absurd 93 goals in just 28 league games. Their defensive records are much closer however, with 35 conceding in 25 and 29 conceded in 28 respectively. The hosts progressed to this comfortable fashion, beating Croydon 3-0. whereas, their visitors, eventually knocked out the current holders, Morpeth Town, in controversial fashion. The visitors are the best supported club at Step 5, with an insane 1209 average attendance. If their supporters travel in these kind of numbers down south today then you have to take your hats off to them, as this tie means South Shields and their will have to complete an 11 hour all-round trip. I think these supporters will be rewarded for their loyalty, as South Shields will prove to be too strong for their opposition, and, should come through comfortably. Their attacking will be relentless, and, will prove to be just too much for the underdogs defence to handle.

Score Prediction - Team Solent 1:4 South Shields

Southall vs Exmouth Town














Sunday's only game in this competition sees a meeting between two sides who are flying the flag for Step 6 football. The hosts currently sit in 5th Place in the Spartan South Midlands League Division One, and, can solely focus on trying to make the final for the second time in their history, their only time in the final was in the 1985/86 season where they suffered defeat at that stage. The visitors currently find themselves in 7th position in the South West Peninsula League Premier Division, and, similar to the hosts, can solely focus on this competition, as they find themselves nowhere near the title race, or relegation. They'll be aiming to reach at least the semi-final for the second time in their history this season, with their only appearance at that stage, coming in the 1984/85 season. Again, this tie pairs together two prolific sides, with Southall scoring 60 goals in 23 games, compared to Exmouth Town, who have managed 57 goals in 22 games. Defensively though, there is a stark difference between them with 36 goals conceded in 23 games for the hosts, whereas, the visitors have conceded a massive 15 less goals in just one less game. Exmouth Town cruised through their previous round, dispatching Step 5 side Corinthian with a 4-0 win. Southall didn't have it as easy going, as they needed to show massive composure to beat their Step 5 opposition in the previous round, as they eventually saw off Bradford Town 4-2 AET. Despite this being a meeting between two step 6 sides, it's a meeting between the two sides who have made it furthest in this competition. This is going to be a very even game, with a solitary goal making all the difference, and, I think it'll be the travelling fans who will be the happier, and their 6 hour round trip will all be worth it.

Score Prediction - Southall 0-1 Exmouth Town

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