Tuesday 17 January 2017

Who will pull off 'The Great Escape' this year?

Seeing your team win a title is no doubt the greatest feeling in football, but those who have witnessed their side manage to stay up at the end of the season despite all odds being against them will tell you that the relief and joy you feel in that moment comes very close, unless you're a Sunderland fan, then you'd probably take a secure mid-table finish for once. Today, I give my thoughts on whether I think these five struggling clubs in England can manage to come back and stay up, or whether they're not capable of making the comeback.

Club: Rotherham United
Division: Championship
Position : 24th
Record: W4/D4/L18
Points from Safety: 9

Since returning to the Championship after a nine year absence back in 2014/15, Rotherham have struggled in their first two years in the second tier, finishing a place above the relegation zone in successive seasons. Their fans would have gone into this year hoping for 'third time lucky' as they say, however, they've suffered the opposite. With just 20 of the 46 games remaining, they sit bottom of the Championship, nine points from survival, and with their leaky defence, which has conceded over 2 goals a game, a return to League One looks likely. Up the other end they struggle just as much, as they've only found the net 27 times in 26 games. Rotherham's form is really poor, picking up only 9 points in their last 10 games, which is surprisingly an improvement on the prior 16 games. They definitely need to invest in this window if they're to stay up this year. They need someone with experience to come in and organise this back four and someone up top that can score goals, as only Danny Ward has managed 4 or more league goals this season (currently on 9). They do have talent in this side, players like: Forde, Ward, Adeyemi, Kelly and Odemwingie are all quality on their day, but none of these are playing well enough consistently. Ultimately, I think they'll go down this year, the core of the squad just isn't strong enough and a clearout of some deadweight at the club is needed and I think a young manager who has a new, fresh idea for the club could benefit them massively in the future.

Club: Coventry City
Division: EFL League One
Position: 24th
Record: W4/D9/L13
Points From Safety: 4

I think many football fans would agree that it's sad to see what's happening to Coventry, a Premier League side until their relegation in 2000/2001, they now find themselves following up their 8th place finish last season by sitting bottom of League One with 20 games to go. Off the pitch, it's a nightmare, protests against the owners at an all time high, but little being done about it. To put it bluntly, Coventry fans are unfortunately the latest to find out that if you're not in the Premier League, the FA quite frankly couldn't care less what happens. On the pitch, performances have been shocking, managing 2 points from the last 10 games, surprisingly those points came against Peterborough and Bolton, showing that this team can be a threat on their day. Loanees like Adam Armstrong and Ryan Kent helped them massively last year but, they haven't brought in quality to replace these players and their paying the price for it. Despite not conceding too many, with respect to their league position, goals have been in short supply and they really need to bring in someone to lead the line. Other than Bigirimana, Lameiras and Reilly, quality is in short supply in this massive squad. They could really do with offloading a fair few in this squad and bring in players that are going to benefit the team, Omar Bogle for example. They've got a decent manager in Russell Slade who has good experience at this level, and, if given time, he will more than like turn this average squad into a well disciplined, decent outfit. I think they've got enough about them to stay up, what's important for them though, is getting a league win as soon as possible, to give the players some belief in each other and confidence in their own ability. If things don't get sorted, they'll end up finding themselves in the same position in the years to come and the luck of surviving will eventually run out.

Club: Newport County
Division: EFL League Two
Position: 24th
Record: W4/D6/L15
Points from Safety: 6

Having got promoted to League Two back in 2012/13, Newport's first two years gave the impression they were making all the right moves, achieving 14th place and 9th place finishes respectively. However, last season instead of making continued progress and pushing for playoffs, they took a massive step backwards and only just survived. This year has been another step back for the Welsh club and after picking up 4 points from their last 10, a chance of survival looks bleak right now. Their problem is their defence, average just under 2 goals a game and despite scoring in 8 of the last 10, they always seem to fail to hang on when in a leading position or with a point on the line. They aren't a club that's financially powerful, so the likelihood is, that unless they can make money off some fringe players, there won't be a lot of players coming into the club. They do have a lot of pace and decent attacking players, but they need to find a system to start benefiting them, right now, they play like a team with no philosophy and at this level, you get punished for it, League Two has been and always will be an unforgiving division, anyone can beat anyone. They desperately need an experienced centre-back to come in and organise them, him leading from the back would be key to solving their defensive issues. The only positives for them is that Notts County are in equally bad form and that they're not battling with Barnet, but with Cheltenham starting to pick up a few wins, it's important for them to start replicating results like their one last time out. The next month is crucial for them, if they haven't won by then, I think it'll be too much for them, however, with the competitive nature of this league, you can never write a team off.

Club: Margate
Division: National League South
Position: 22nd
Record: W5/D1/L19
Points from Safety: 7

Margate's return to the National League South has not been plain sailing in any way having only just survived, as they achieved a 19th place finish last year. Any chance of returning to the Conference is out of the question though, as this season they're massively struggling with their small squad. They have the worst form of any team on this list, having suffered 10 consecutive league defeats. The problem for manager Nikki Bull, is that the problem in his side isn't just in one area, not only are they scoring less than a goal a game, they are also conceding over 2 a game, that is not a recipe for success by any means. With 17 games left, the only positive they really have is that the transfer window is always open, it's a long shot for Bull but at this point, I think they have to look around for some young and experienced players and integrate them into the team quickly. At this level now, there seems to be a split between the top 8 or so that are quite well off financially and unfortunately for Margate, it means they are put into situations like this. I can't see them managing to retain their place in this division this year, they're losing games to the teams around them and it's those sides that you have to be picking up points against, whilst snatching the odd point here and there off the top teams if you're going to survive and simply put, this squad isn't capable of that.

Club: Altrincham
Division: National League North
Position: 22nd
Record: W1/D5/L18
Points from Safety: 17

Altrincham's three year stay in the conference came to an end last year with them finishing in 22nd place, missing out on the survival by 5 points, however fans would have been expecting a much better return in the National League North than they've had to endure. Their only win of the season came on October 8th against the side in 21st, Stalybridge Celtic. Again, the problem lies in all areas, less than a goal scored per game and almost 3 goals conceded per game, they're all over the place. Within the last 10 games, they've managed to do better than Margate at least, having managed to pick up 1 point. The only thing Matt Doughty can do, similarly to Nikki Bull, is just try to find players on the fringe of other teams at Step 6 or those impressing at Step 7. They bolster quite a big squad but that clearly isn't translating into success, however, with it being Doughty's first month in charge, his philosophy may be trusted more by the players and they finally may pick up 3 points again. There is surely no chance Altrincham manage to pull this off, especially with how hard the National League has become nowadays, but if they do, this may just be the greatest escape of all time.


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