Benfica vs Borussia Dortmund - Tuesday 14th February & Wednesday 8th March
Average is the best word to sum up Benfica's group stage performance, and, they will have to be at their best if they're going to overcome strong opposition as they face Borussia Dortmund. Both have have won this competition, the Portuguese sides' coming way in the past however, when it was formerly known as the European Cup, with their last final appearance being in the 1989/90 season, and their last win coming back in the 1961/62 season. Their opposition have had more recent success, winning in 1996/97, and more recently, suffering defeat in the 2012/13 final. Based on domestic success you'd have to favour Benfica, as they find themselves with a great chance to win their fourth successive Primeira Liga title, as they sit top, with just 2 losses in their 21 league outings. Whereas, Dortmund have suffered from inconsistency in the Bundesliga as they find themselves in 4th place, only managing to win 45% of their league games this year. Based on this competition however, it's roles reversed, with the German side looking almost unstoppable as they managed to finish above last year's winners Real Madrid. Their 21 goals in the group stage was the highest of any team in the competition, so you have to fear for Benfica's defence. The Portuguese side only managed second place behind Napoli, in a group which many expected to win. Their lacklustre record of W2/D2/L2, was in no doubt down to the fact that they made so many defensive errors, which saw them concede 10 goals, the joint most of any side that has progressed to this stage. It's vital Benfica are well organised and solid at the back during these two legs if they hope to make it to the Quarter-Finals for the second year in a row. They will no doubt be relying on Mitroglou's hold up play to be the catalyst for their counter-attacks as his job will be to bring the wide men into the game. Dortmund's game plan will no doubt be to relentlessly attack their opposition's shaky back-line, using the pace of Aubameyang, Dembele and Reus to their advantage. Benfica will have to take a lead into the 2nd leg if their to have any chance of progression, and, with them only losing once at home this season and Dortmund conceding in each of their last 9 league away games, they will have great confidence in taking a good advantage to the hostile and boisterous Westfalenstadion. Overall, I think that the pace of Dortmund's attack will be too much for Benfica's defence and they'll be the ones to progress to the Quarter-Finals on their return to the Champions League.
Key Players
Benfica - Andre Horta (CM)
Kostas Mitroglou (ST)
Jonas (ST)
Borussia Dortmund - Mario Gotze (CM/CAM)
Marco Reus (LW)
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (ST)
Paris Saint Germain vs FC Barcelona - Tuesday 14th February & Wednesday 8th March
The reigning Ligue 1 champions take on the reigning La Liga champions in what promises to be not only one of the best match-ups of the Round of 16, but of the whole competition. The French side are still searching for their first win in this competition, their best attempt coming back in 1994/95 where they lost in the semi-final. Their opponent however, are five times winners of the Champions League, with four of these five being won in the last 11 seasons, and, their most recent win coming in the 2014/15 campaign. Based on recent domestic success, these two sides are almost inseparable, as they both sit in second place in their respective leagues, scoring 2 or more goals per game and both conceding only 18 in their 20+ league appearances. PSG are chasing their 5th successive league title this year while Barcelona are after their 4th title in the same period. Based on their performance in this year's Champions League, you have to slightly favour the Spanish side, whom many still consider to be the best team in the world. An almost perfect group stage record five wins and just the solitary loss saw them top what could have proved to be a tricky group for most. They were one of two sides to hit 20+ goals in the Group Stage, and, having only conceded 4 goals in the competition so far, they look like a force to be reckoned with yet again. Their French opposition were unbeaten in the previous stage, however, too many draws saw them finish second to Arsenal. With 13 goals scored and only 7 conceded though, you can see the talent that this side clearly possesses. In the most recent meetings between these two European heavyweights, Barcelona have come out on top in 3 of the 4 games, scoring double the amount of goals which PSG has managed (10-5). The current French champions will take confidence from the fact that they have beat the Spanish giants at the Parc Des Princes before, 3-1 back in September 2014, and, I'm sure this will be drilled into them as a motivation tactic in the pre-match team talk. For them to knock Barcelona out, I feel they need to do what too many teams fail to do, cut the supply line to Messi, Suarez and Neymar. To do this, it takes high pressing from every player to not only cut the passing lanes, but to also put emphasis on giving the midfield trio no time on the ball, forcing them to resort to playing long, which Thiago Silva and Marquinhos should deal with comfortably. They will also need their full-backs and wingers to put in a shift in both departments, whilst it's vital for Cavani to be clinical, unlike his showing against Arsenal, where he missed 4 or 5 clear cut chances. Barcelona will just play their usual slick passing, free-flowing football and as long as they don't overplay in the final third, it's obvious their going to create numerous chances. Overall, I think this will be the closest meetings between these two sides, but, Barcelona will come out on top, with MSN and the creativity of Rakitic and Iniesta proving to be too much for the PSG defence to deal with.
Key Players
Paris Saint Germain - Marco Verrati (CM/CDM)
Angel Di Maria (CAM)
Edison Cavani (ST)
FC Barcelona - Ivan Rakitic (CM/CAM)
Lionel Messi (RW)
Luis Suarez (ST)
Real Madrid vs Napoli - Wednesday 15th February & Tuesday 7th March
Napoli fans, players and staff will feel very unlucky, especially after topping their group, to be drawn against the most successful side in this competitions history, as they face Real Madrid. Napoli are still relatively new to the Champions League, as this is only their 6th campaign, and their 4th appearance at this stage. The only time they've ever made it past the Round of 16 was back in 1976/77, where they suffered defeat at the hands of Anderlecht in the semi-final. Their opponents are a polar opposite, as the Spanish giants have won this competition a record 11 times, and are the current holders, after beating Atletico Madrid on penalties in last year's final. Based on domestic form this year, Real Madrid would be slight favourites over their Italian opposition, as they top La Liga, suffering just a solitary league defeat this season, scoring 2.7 goals per game whilst conceding only 0.9 goals per game. Napoli are enjoying a good season in the Serie A, as they currently occupy 3rd place, 9 points off leaders Juventus. They're in a good spell of form, having picked up 16/18 points in recent weeks and have really cemented themselves as one of the top teams in Italy in recent seasons. Surprisingly, when you compare their record in the Group Stage, it's Real Madrid who did the better of the two sides, as they were unbeaten in their group, but, drawing 3 games saw them finish second. Napoli did well to win their group, bolstering a record of W3/D2/L1 whilst scoring 11 and conceding 8, a respectable effort. Last season, the Spaniards knocked out another Italian side, Roma at this stage, whereas Napoli's European adventure was ended in the Europa League by Spanish side Villareal and I'm sure many wouldn't write off history repeating itself this year. If Napoli are going to beat Real Madrid, I feel that their task is the same as PSG's, cut the passing lanes, and press the midfield in order to stop the supply into Benzemaand Ronaldo. However, the problem with forcing Zidane's side into playing the long ball is that unlike Barcelona's, Madrid's attackers are superb in the air, making beating them near impossible, as so many teams have found out this season already. They are vulnerable defensively though, as proven by the 10 goals they conceded in the Group Stage, so if Napoli keep it low scoring at the Bernabeu, there's no doubt they'll find plenty of chances in the return leg. Overall, if Real Madrid all firing on all cylinders, I can't see Napoli getting much joy from this match-up. The quality which the Los Blancos possess is far superior to their Italian opposition and I expect them to make a statement.
Key Players
Real Madrid - Luka Modric (CM)
Cristiano Ronaldo (ST/LW)
Karim Benzema (ST)
Napoli - Marek Hamsik (MF)
Lorenzo Insigne (ST)
Jose Callejon (RW/ST)
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal - Wednesday 15th February & Tuesday 7th March
To round up part one, we have the first of the three remaining English sides, Arsenal, who face another difficult Round of 16 tie as they match-up against the reigning Bundesliga champions. I think all Arsenal fans had the same feeling when Bayern Munich finished second in their group that we'd end up drawing them again, however to win this competition, you have to beat these calibre of teams and the momentum we'd get off this victory could propel us into a great patch of form. The German side have won this competition an incredible 5 times in their history, their latest being the 2-1 win against Borussia Dortmund back in the 2012/13 campaign. Whereas, the English side have never felt the joy of winning the Champions League/European Cup, with their closest moment to success coming in 2005/06, where they suffered a heartbreaking defeat to Barcelona in the final (the less said about that, the better). Comparing the domestic form of these two teams, Bayern are the clear favourites. They've only lost once in the league this year, in which they're 7 points ahead of second place, and on a 9 game unbeaten run, as they aim to win their 5th successive Bundesliga title. It looks like it'll be another year without a Premier League title for us Gunners after inconsistency since the start of December, a run which seen our league losses go from just one, up to five. In the Champions League however, Arsenal showed much better form, managing to avoid a stupid defeat like the Zagreb game in recent years, despite a nervy moment at Ludogorets which they managed to overcome, which was vital in them finally topping their group. Bayern didn't have a bad showing in their group by any means, but failed to show up a big games against Atletico Madrid and even looked awful at the back when they lost to FC Rostov, something they can't afford to do in this tie. It looks like this is will be an even tie on paper, as both have conceded a goal per game, and scored over two per game. The Gunners have exited at this stage for six successive years, with Bayern being their conquerors for two of these. Wenger's side have never knocked Bayern out in the knockout stage of this competition, failing 4 times (2000/01, 2004/05, 2012/13 and 2013/14). While the history all points to a Bayern win, I'm actually confident this will be the year that we end the Round of 16 curse. Giving ourselves everything to do in the second leg has been our downfall in recent years, however, playing in the hostile atmosphere, should get the players into the right frame of mind to want to cause the upset. To overcome the curse and beat Bayern, Wenger has to pick a team with pace, Gibbs/Bellerin at full-back, Ox in centre-mid, and a front four of Walcott/Ozil/Sanchez/Welbeck, would be ideal, with Perez in for Ozil or Walcott being a decent move aswell. Welbeck has to start up front as he'll offer more strength than Sanchez up against Boateng, whilst still offering the pace to run in behind, and the hold up play to bring the wide men into the game. I can't put enough emphasis on how important scoring in the first leg is, that away goal is everything, even if we can't win, getting away goals in a score draw or losing 2-1/3-2 isn't the worst result in the world, and, we'll give us every chance back at the Emirates, where I hope the fans finally create an atmosphere, the players need it in a game of this magnitude. However, play like we did against Watford and Chelsea and we'll get hammered. This game will require every player to turn up, one goes missing and you get caught out in games like this. Bayern need to come out and bully Arsenal if their going to win, it's what Chelsea did so effectively. Overall, the outcome of the first leg will determine the outcome of this match-up, Arsenal win, score draw or suffer a one-goal marginal defeat in which they score and they'll come out on top, Bayern win by 2 clear goals or keep a clean sheet and it's over, as I can see them scoring at the Emirates.
Key Players
Bayern Munich - Manuel Neuer (GK)
Jerome Boateng (CB)
Robert Lewandowski (ST)
Arsenal - Everyone - We won't win this game unless every single player is fulfilling their potential and no-one goes missing. (*cough* Mesut Ozil *cough*) Cech needs to make up for his errors at Chelsea if he starts, I'd rather Ospina play at this point though, especially with how he performed at PSG. Bellerin/Gibbs have to show no fear in getting forward, but good discipline in knowing when to stay back. Koscielny/Mustafi have to be solid at the back and bully Lewandowski, can't allow him to turn in dangerous areas. Coquelin/Ox have to be solid in midfield and show great fight and desire in winning 50/50 tackles, aswell as moving the ball quickly, a speedy transition from defence to attack is vital. Walcott/Sanchez have to be disciplined in getting back and helping out defensively, whilst being creative and clinical in the final third, well-timed runs in behind the Bayern back-line to support Welbeck and give options to Ozil, Ox and the full-backs will be key. Ozil has to control the game, can't afford to go missing like usual, he's got to be composed in the final third, willing to track back and make a tackle aswell as being willing to make runs into the box in order to give another option. Welbeck has to be strong in challenges against Boateng and Hummels, make his first challenge count, he needs to work hard and chase every loose ball, make runs in behind and out wide in order to create space for the trio behind him and most importantly, he has to be clinical, make Bayern count for giving a chance.
Part Two will be posted next week, including:
- The other two English hopefuls
- The Premier League and Serie A Champions
- And last year's runners-up
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