Friday, 11 August 2017

Premier League 2017/18 Forecast

Champions - Manchester City

For me, Guardiola's side are by far the favourites this season. With their strength in depth, particularly in attack, they're going to be a force to be reckoned with for any defence in the Premier League. I wouldn't be surprised to see them break the record most league goals scored in a season, especially with the creativity of Silva/De Bruyne and Toure, behind a front three of Gabriel Jesus, Aguero and Sane/Sterling. They'll still be vulnerable to counter-attacks so the odd dodgy result will no doubt pull them closer to the chasing pack, however, with their firepower, not winning the league this year would be a failure.

Runners-Up - Chelsea

The current holders will push City all the way, however I can't see them retaining the title next season. The adaptation period of Morata and Bakayoko is why I think they'll just miss out, even if Morata adapts quickly, they won't hit their peak until Bakayoko is fully fit. Fabregas will likely sit in the hole with Kante, but as the Community Shield showed, playing the Spaniard in that role leaves them more exposed defensively. They're exposed to a potential defensive crisis with the sale of Ake and the loaning of Zouma to Stoke City. I believe that more teams will have their number this year and be able to counter their 3 at the back system which was so effective last campaign. What I think is key for their success this year will be adaptation, it's something Conte wouldn't have really had to worry about at Juventus, however, now teams have seen others nullify the effect of their system, it'll be interesting to see how quickly he comes up with a Plan B when they hit a rough patch of form. With that said, in Europe I think it'll be a different story as I can see them impressing and at least reaching the semi-finals of the Champions League.

3rd - Arsenal

I still don't think we're strong enough to fight for the title yet, however I do believe that Arsenal will have a much better final position this year. Lacazette will compliment how we like to play and I'd go as far as saying, he's the best fit for our style of play that we've had since Henry. Great movement, plenty of pace and a powerhouse, he should quickly adapt to the pace of the Premier League and more importantly, bring the best out of Mesut Ozil. There is no excuse for the German to have games where he goes missing next year, especially now that defenders no longer have to only worry about the movement of Sanchez, but now Lacazette adds another piece to the puzzle. Kolasinac may prove to be the signing of the summer, a pacey powerful full-back who looks head and shoulders above the likes of Gibbs and Monreal going forward. I think he'll contribute a lot to the team, not only in assists, but, with goals to due to his aerial presence. If we can get Lemar then that should be the pneultimate bit of business for me, I believe we're also a centre-back away from being a title contender. You could argue that we need another CM also to sit alongside Xhaka, however I think any of Elneny/Coquelin/Ramsey compliment his style of play perfectly. I think November and February will ultimately decide the outcome of our season, taking 7 or 8 out of 12 and 6 out of 9 at least respectively will see us stay within touching distance of the two above us. (Fixtures obviously subject to change) The Europa League run shouldn't have much of an affect on league form, the group stage should be easily negotiated with a 2nd team but then again knowing our luck, Bayern or Barca will end up finishing 3rd in their group and drawing us in the Round of 32. If that doesn't happen, then we have to have aspirations to win it. I think we're one of the strongest sides in their and not winning it would be a real disappointment. Finally you have to question the mentality, too many times we've fallen away at crucial parts of the season and the excuses have rolled out, whether that will change now that we're playing 3 at the back, who knows with Arsenal nowadays. What we do know, is that success is needed and if not success then real signs of progression at least to help repair the fanbase after the disarray it's been in with the Wenger In vs Wenger Out. He's signed the two year deal now so that's done, it's time to be positive and hope things have changed, if one result goes bad I hope people don't jump back into the arguments, however, what we do know is that by staying in charge, Wenger has put himself in the position of being under the most pressure to succeed during his tenure at the club.

4th - Liverpool

From 3rd to 7th in this prediction, I think you could make a case for any team trading places with each other, but none more so than Liverpool. Having at trio of Coutinho, Salah and Mane behind Firmino will no doubt worry many teams, however I don't think they've invested brilliantly. Salah is a risk, sure he's been good in pre-season, however, he did that at Chelsea and then was poor for the season for the most part. Sturridge is part-time footballer, part-time hospital patient so they can't rely on him for many goals. I think there is a lot of pressure on Firmino again to get the goals but if he gets injured, that's where I worry. They've got Solanke and Woodburn but it would take something special for either of them to get 10+ goals in the season. I still think they are a mess defensively, they should have gone all out for Danny Rose in my opinion instead of Robertson. Set-pieces will still catch them out so I can see them having the same problem as last year where they drop too many points against the lesser teams in the league. On the bright side, at least we get to see Champions League football at Anfield again, well as long as they can get past Hoffenheim.

5th - Manchester United

I've seen a few pundits put Man United in their top 2 this year, but I personally can't see them getting close to that. For all the money they spend, what do they actually have to show for it? Pogba proved his price tag to be unjustified, Lukaku is inconsistent, Lindelof will likely be as dodgy as Daley Blind and they're still wasting the talent of Rashford and Martial by sticking them out wide. Letting Rooney go was the right decision, however if their fans think Lukaku will win them as many points as Ibrahimovic did last year, then they're in for a reality check. Two things prevent the Belgian from being up there with the likes of Aguero, Suarez, Kane, Higuain, etc. The first is his overall contribution to the team. When he's marked out of the game, unlike the world's elite he tries to overplay and just lose the ball time and time again. He lacks the football brain to know when to drop deep and bring others into the game and when to go for goal. Secondly, despite his goalscoring totals being fairly good, what people forget to notice is that he's prone to go on those 5/6 game spells where he doesn't score, usually after a game where he manages to score in excess of 3 goals. This inconsistency will narrowly prevent United from getting in the top four this campaign, in a season where the slimmest margins will have the biggest effects.

6th - Tottenham

Spurs are about to enter a very difficult transitional period as they adjust to being on a tight budget due to building a new stadium, which will see them drop just outside the top four. I would have put them lower, but with keeping the likes of Eriksen, Dembele, Alli and Kane, I can see them having enough to still be in and around those above them. For me, the Wembley factor is massive, there is no hostility of playing an away game there like at White Hart Lane. They struggled their in Europe last year and I can see that being their achilles heel this season.

7th - Everton

Ronald Koeman is building a quality squad at Everton. A midfield trio of Klaassen, Davies and Gueye will no doubt be too much for any side outside the top six to handle. The only reason I put them 7th is due to a lack of firepower, if they'd have got Iheanacho or Chicarito up top then I'd say they'd be on the outskirts of the top four. They've got a great mix of youth and experience and I think the future is bright there, however it's a year too soon to put them in the top four. A good run in the Europa League is the best fans should hope for.

8th - Southampton

I really like this squad and with a young manager in Pellegrino in charge, I think they'll play great football and score plenty of goals, but if they lose Van Dijk, I can't see them challenging those above them. I can see Ward-Prowse, like Tom Davies from Everton, having a great campaign. Keeping Charlie Austin and Shane Long fit is crucial to their success, but even an inconsistent season from those would still see Southampton finish as best of the rest.

9th - Leicester City

Craig Shakespeare had a perfect start to management last year, leading the 2015/16 Champions out of their rut. Iheanacho and Vardy are going to be solid up front and could no doubt strike up a phenomenal partnership. Ndidi proved to be a solid replacement for Kante once he adapted to the league and with his midfield partner Drinkwater back on form, you can see chances galore being created. Defensively, they are extremely vulnerable, which is why I think they'll not manage to escape from the midfield group.

10th - Crystal Palace

I really like the appointment of De Boer and think he'll work wonders with this squad. The pace of Zaha, Bolasie and Townsend and the creativity of Cabaye in midfield could match any team on their day. However, consistency is something these players, especially Benteke, do not possess. They will have days where they beat the top teams but days where the lose to the bottom sides. Mid-table for them.

11th - West Ham United

Signing Javier Hernandez may prove to be one of the best signings of the summer as he should strike up a solid partnership with Andy Carroll. They can rely on Lanzini and Antonio to create chances for them from just behind. I think they'll still concede plenty of goals, but there is no way that they'll start as poorly as they did last year. Getting Joe Hart on loan is a very good piece of business as he'll be determing to prove to the country that he is a top keeper, his passion and infectious and will no doubt keep their leaky defence more structured.

12th - Watford

Marco Silva almost worked miracles with Hull City last year so now that he's had a transfer window and possesses a better squad, I can see him getting the best out of these players. I can't wait to see Deeney and Andre Gray play together, I think we'll see deja-vu of the Ighalo/Deeney partnership of two years ago. Will Hughes has finally been given the opportunity to play in the Premier League and will go above and beyond everyone's expectations at the club, bagging plenty of assists for the deadly strike force in front of him. Defensively, they are a few players away from bridging the gap to those around them but with the money spent already, funds for more players will be limited.

13th - Bournemouth

Eddie Howe's side will be boosted by the signing of reliable goalscorer Jermain Defoe, but the most important part he will play for Bournemouth, is his mentoring of Josh King. He can teach the young forward so much about being a top striker, I believe this partnership will see them comfortably survive. The problem with this side, is that they never have a plan B, they play 4-4-2 all the time and expect it to work every game. They score plenty and play entertaining football, however, they're lack of adaptation sees them concede way too many.

14th - West Bromwich Albion

A Tony Pulis side, need I say anymore? Solid at the back, a force from set pieces, you can never count them out. Relegation isn't a worry but a lack of goals is. They've got some exciting youth prospects coming through that could prove to be the entertainment which these fans have been waiting for.

15th - Stoke City

Too many draws will hinder this squad yet again. They've strengthened with loan signing of Zouma, however, losing Arnautovic and Walters is going to put a massive dent in their goalscoring effort. Maybe Berahino and Crouch could form a solid partnership but I still don't see them doing anything special against most teams and may even finish a few places lower.

16th - Swansea City

Don't rate this side high enough defensively for them to push on and challenge for a mid-table finish. Attacking wise they are a solid side. With players like Abraham who will likely be wasted out wide, Sigurdsson and Llorente, I think they can score plenty, but equally, they'll concede plenty. If they lose Sigurdsson, then they'll be right in the relegation fight, however if they keep him, they should be just about fine as home form will carry them through.

17th - Newcastle United

Like Swansea, home form will carry them to survival. The Geordie faithful will carry them to survival just like they have done in the past. I think that their recruitment has been awful and that will see them exposed for what they are nowadays, an average side. They have to have a big summer next year if they're not going to sign any big money proven players in this window otherwise they'll lose Rafa. Basically, plenty of True Geordie rant videos will be inbound next year.

18th - Huddersfield Town

Wagner's side play with freedom, with creative players all over the shop. They have the potential to upset, but ultimately will drop as their successful style of play from last year in which they press the opposing team high, will see them left exposed against the top opposition and they'll be on the wrong end of high goalscoring games this year. Entertaining but ultimately not strong enough to survive.

19th - Burnley

I just can't see where the goals are going to come from following the departure of Andre Gray. Sure Vokes will get 5-10, but that's nowhere near enough to see them survive. Walters is hard working and will no doubt create problems for teams but he's not exactly a clinical finisher either. They do have one of the best keepers in the league in Heaton, but even if they manage the clean sheet, they'll pick up plenty of 0-0's. They won't have their home form of last year and that will prove to be crucial in their demise.

20th - Brighton

Not a lot to say about Brighton, they're an average side who play average football and will just about avoid breaking the record for the least amount of points in Premier League history.





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